Close to toast.
Military/False Alerts of Sudden Nuclear Attacks
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“But the most serious example of the instability in Russia came in January 1995, when President Yeltsin admitted to activating his ‘nuclear briefcase’ — a device used for the launching of Russia’s nuclear forces in the case of an enemy attack. What was the cause for such an emergency? It turns out that the security scare was the result of a scientific research missile fired by Norway. The rocket launch, which Norway had notified Russia of a month earlier, was detected by Russian early warning systems and prompted a nuclear security alert in Russia. That such a routine launch would cause such widespread panic in Russia is extremely unsettling, as is the statement by a Russian diplomat that ‘there are many incidents like this that no one knows about.’”
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Still a possibility - http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_7-11-2002_pg3_2